Latin American Economic Perspectives Brazil Polls Aggregator: Could President Lula Win in the First Round?

Research evidence excerpt

Latin American Economic Perspectives Brazil Polls Aggregator: Could President Lula Win in the First Round?

Global Research

18 June 2026ab

Latin American Economic Perspectives Economics

AmericasBrazil Polls Aggregator: Could President Lula

Fabio RamosWin in the First Round?

Economist

fabio.ramos@ubs.com

+55-11-2767 6525

Lula edges closer to the threshold Alexandre de Azara

The “good/great” assessment in our polls aggregator rose to 36%, up 1pp from our Economist

late-May note (Figures 1–2). The move is modest, but directionally relevant, alexandre.azara@ubs.com

+55-11-2767 6570

bringing the President closer to the 38%+ threshold that has historically been

associated with incumbents securing reelection or backing a successor (Figure 3). Rodrigo Martins

Glass ceilings, loyal bases rodrigo.martins@ubs.com

+55-11-2767 6338

At this stage of the pre-campaign, positive assessment metrics may be more

informative than runoff scenarios. Still, we update our runoff aggregator for the

two current frontrunners, based on 15 publicly available polls registered with the

electoral court. President Lula leads with 53% of valid votes against Senator Flávio

Bolsonaro (Figure 4). While the Senator appears to have lost some momentum in

recent weeks, his base remains resilient, as noted in our previous work. In

unprompted polling, his first-round support continues to exceed that of all other

likely center-right candidates combined, suggesting limited room for alternatives

to consolidate.

Rejection caps the race

The broader picture points to entrenched polarization. As previously discussed,

both Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro continue to carry high rejection rates. At this point,

no major candidate combines significant vote intention with low rejection. In