Despite valuation support, too early to dip in: Macau Gaming | Asia Pacific

Research evidence excerpt

Despite valuation support, too early to dip in: Macau Gaming | Asia Pacific

Idea

June 21, 2026 09:54 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+MMacau Gaming | Asia Pacific Praveen K Choudhary

Equity Analyst

Despite valuation support, too Praveen.Choudhary@morganstanley.comMorgan Stanley & Co. LLC +852 2848-5068

Stephen W Grambling

Equity Analystearly to dip in Stephen.Grambling@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-1010

Macau stocks look cheap, but estimate revisions remain negative

(GGR slowdown and negative operating leverage). High FCF and

dividend yield aren't appreciated by investors yet. Heading into

2Q results, we prefer MGM China and Wynn Macau.

Hong Kong/Macau Gaming

Asia Pacific

Key Takeaways Industry View In-Line

What’s Changed

(-) We expect negative EBITDA estimate revisions to continue, driven by lower

Galaxy Entertainment

GGR growth expectations and a structurally higher cost base. (0027.HK) From To

Price Target HK$37.00 HK$34.00

(-) With our 2026 quarterly GGR growth forecasts for 2Q-4Q at ~2–3% YoY, we

expect a continued decline in GGR growth expectations. SJM Holdings (0880.HK) From To

Price Target HK$2.00 HK$1.30

(+) EV/EBITDA (7.2x vs. 12.8x long-term average), FCFE (9.5% vs. 7.1%) and

Sands China Ltd. (1928.HK) From To

dividend yield (spread over 10-yr Treasury) are nearing pre-COVID averages. Rating Overweight Equal-weight

Price Target HK$17.50 HK$15.50

(+) We upgrade MGM China to OW and remain OW on Wynn Macau, reflecting

strong EBITDA seen for 2Q, share gains, and high dividend yields. MGM China Holdings Limited

(2282.HK) From To

(-) We downgrade MLCO/Sands to EW tactically, despite inexpensive valuation, Rating Equal-weight Overweight

as we see negative estimate revisions continuing. Price Target HK$13.30 HK$13.50

Wynn Macau, Limited

(1128.HK) From To