Westpac Banking | Asia Pacific Key Issues

Research evidence excerpt

Westpac Banking | Asia Pacific Key Issues

IdeaM

Risk Reward – Westpac Banking (WBC.AX)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS CATALYST CALENDAR

Drivers Sep 2025 Sep 2026e Sep 2027e Sep 2028e Date Event Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley

Loan Growth (y-o-y) (%) 5.5 5.3 4.0 4.2 10 Aug 2026 WBC 3Q26 Trading Update

Net Interest Margins (%) 1.94 1.91 1.91 1.88 02 Nov 2026 WBC FY26 Earnings Release

Revenue Growth (y-o-y) (%) 3.2 2.3 3.5 2.3 16 Dec 2026 WBC 2026 Annual General Meeting

Expense Growth (y-o-y) (%) 8.9 (0.5) 1.5 1.9

Impairment Charges / Total Loans

0.05 0.10 0.12 0.10

(%)

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

Impact of cash rate changes, competition, and RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Sep 2026e

pricing power on margins Stronger economy and mortgage market

Loan growth trends, particularly mortgages Improved franchise performance Sales / 22,988

Cost-cutting and expense growth Better margins from less competition and Revenue 22,783 23,404

Loan loss trends higher rates (A$, mn) 22,992

Capital management and dividend prospects Beating near-term cost forecasts

Strategic decisions Lower-for-longer loan losses

Regulatory requirements Better dividends and further buybacks 10,193

EBITDA

RISKS TO DOWNSIDE Note: There are not sufficient brokers supplying (A$, mn)GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE consensus data for this metric Resumption of material margin decline

Mortgage market share loss

Higher investment and cost growth

APAC, ex Japan, Mainland 7,008 100% China and India Weaker economy and higher loan losses Net income 6,935 7,221

Unexpected acquisitions (A$, mn)

Dividend cut 7,064

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate

View explanation of regional hierarchies here OWNERSHIP POSITIONING EPS 2.07

2.03 2.12

(A$)

Inst. Owners, % Active 25.2% 2.07MS ALPHA MODELS