FedEx Corp (FDX) 4Q26 Preview: Moving to calendar reporting with a bag full of cash and an attractive multiple

Research evidence excerpt

FedEx Corp (FDX) 4Q26 Preview: Moving to calendar reporting with a bag full of cash and an attractive multiple

18 June 2026

David Vernon

+1 917 344 8333

Airfreight & Surface Transportation david.vernon@bernsteinsg.com

Justine WeissFedEx Corp +1 917 344 8433

Rating justine.weiss@bernsteinsg.com

Outperform Specialist Sales

Steve Song

Price Target +1 917 344 8401

steve.song@bernsteinsg.com

FDX 424.00 USD (470.00 OLD)

FedEx Corp (FDX) 4Q26 Preview: Moving to calendar reporting

with a bag full of cash and an attractive mulitple

We are modestly raising estimates into the print as macro factors have been constructive,

Close Date 17 Jun 2026

pricing remains rational, and airfreight rates elevated. This quarter marks the sunset of the May

FDX Close Price (USD) 325.93

Fiscal year-end, and while this may cause volatility as consensus settles, it is clear to us that

Price Target (USD) 424.00

FedEx is moving into calendar reporting with a bag full of cash and a low valuation.

Upside/(Downside) 30%

We are expecting a 3% beat to consensus estimates for FY4Q26 (ended May). We 52-Week Range 345.37/174.01

tweak our estimates (Exhibit 2) modestly as trading conditions have, at the margin, improved SPX 7,420.10

across the broader industrial landscape, discussions with industry participants support the FYE May

theme of rational pricing, and airfreight rates remain elevated. Intra-quarter data points can Div Yield 1.5%

be difficult to come by, but we would expect that FDX confirms some broadening of industrial Market Cap (USD) (M) 77,779

activity when they report next week which should be bullish for sentiment. EV (USD) (M) 111,793

Performance YTD 1M 6M 12M

Expect volatility as consensus resets to an Express-only outlook on a calendar year. Absolute (%) 40.1 9.5 41.0 81.3