Earnings Resilience Amid Market Pressure

Research evidence excerpt

Earnings Resilience Amid Market Pressure

Australia | Education

IDP Education EquityJuneResearch19, 2026

TARGET | ESTIMATE CHANGEEarnings Resilience Amid Market Pressure

Although IEL updated FY26 adjusted EBIT to A$122m (vs. previously A RATING BUY

$120–130m), this remains modestly above consensus by ~3%. Combined PRICE AUD2.61^

with the A$50m buyback planned for FY27, we expect earnings to remain PRICE TARGET | % TO PT AUD3.30 (AUD7.80) |

+26%

relatively stable despite near-term market pressures. Retain Buy, with lower

52W HIGH-LOW AUD6.74 - AUD2.00

PT $3.30/share (prev. $7.80).

FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD) 89.9% | 7.99

MARKET CAP AUD726.5M | $511.1M

Earnings look more resilient than revenue: Despite ongoing top-line pressure, IEL’s adjusted

EBIT margin remains within a reasonable range based on the FY26 guidance in today’s trading TICKER IEL AU

update. This reflects continued cost discipline (FY26 net cost reduction improved from ~$25m ^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise noted.

to ~$30m) and solid yield outcomes. Looking ahead, earnings could see further support from

the FY27 buyback plan and additional cost efficiencies from digitalisation.

FY (Jun) CHANGE TO JEFe JEF vs CONS

IELTS as a relative support: Near-term pressure remains concentrated in student placement,

2026 2027 2026 2027

while we expect a modest recovery in revenue, supported by relatively resilient yields and

REV -2% -10% NM -3%

an increasing number of IELTS test sites in China. At this stage, we do not expect IDP’s

EPS +48% -25% -4% -1%

IELTS business to be materially impacted by broader trends in the student placement industry,

although the company's visibility on the SP market for FY27 and beyond remains limited.

2026 (AUD) 1HalfA 2Half FY