Weekly Refining & Marketing Margin: Australia | Refining & Marketing

Research evidence excerpt

Weekly Refining & Marketing Margin: Australia | Refining & Marketing

Australia | Refining & Marketing EquityJuneResearch19, 2026

Figure 5 - ALD & VEA PE ratioWeekly Refining & Marketing Margin

20x

VEA ALD

Refining margins declined slightly this week as US-Iran sign 60-day MoU 18x16x

14x

12xbut remain well above historical levels. We expect crude and product

10x

supply normalisation from the Strait of Hormuz to take some time and 8x6x

refining margins to remain above pre-conflict levels. Gasoline retail margins May-25 Jun-25 Jul-25 Aug-25 Sep-25 Oct-25 Nov-25 Dec-25 Jan-26 Feb-26 Mar-26 Apr-26 May-26 Jun-26

.weakness partly offset by strength in diesel in 2Q to date. Australian Source: Factset. NB: 12mth fwd

Petroleum stats for April released this week.

Figure 6 - Aus Refining SWAM - US$/bbl by qtr

33.3 34.5A weekly summary of refining & marketing margins across Australia & NZ - We monitor

24.6 23.6 23.8 21.7 23.4 20.9a Singapore Weighted Average Margin (SWAM), which we construct based on a typical 18.8 19.9 16.8 16.7 16.4 12.6 13.6 14.2 14.2Australian refiner product slate, as well as a published Minas211 benchmark. Both metrics

have been highly correlated with ALD and VEA refining margins over time (refer to Appendix

for correlation). We also show individual product cracks and crude premia, as well as product

2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23 4Q23 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24 4Q24 1Q25 2Q25 3Q25 4Q25 1Q26 2Q26*inventory. In addition, we monitor weekly Australian retail margin data from AIP, and NZ .

importer margins from Government data. Source:product Jefferiesslate. 2Q26analysis.is periodNB:toBaseddate on a fixed pre-COVID

Refining margins averaged US$28/bbl this week - Minas211 averaged US$28.36/bbl this

week, slightly lower than US$31.87/bbl last week.