Qantas Airways Limited (QAN.AX): Project Sunrise: Key takes from the showcase

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Qantas Airways Limited (QAN.AX): Project Sunrise: Key takes from the showcase

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18 Jun 2026 17:29:50 ET │ 11 pages

Qantas Airways Limited (QAN.AX)

Project Sunrise: Key takes from the showcase

CITI’S TAKE

We attended the Project Sunrise showcase and came away with

Buy additional colour on the business case for non-stop ultra long haul flying.

Price (18 Jun 26 16:00) A$9.99 Overall based on the ~90% loads and >20% RASK premium currently

being generated in PER-LHR, the investment case of the initial SYD-LHR Target price A$10.40

route appears reasonable. With an apparent conflict resolution near term Expected share price return 4.1%

and more proven routes de-risking the early stages of Project Sunrise, we Expected dividend yield 4.0%

remain positive on the stock. Expected total return 8.1%

Market Cap A$15,117M

Business case remains $400M – Overall Project Sunrise is expected to lift US$10,774M

International EBIT ~$400M with key drivers: 1) A ~20% RASK premium on A350 ULR

flown routes comprised 2 new pairs (SYD-LHR, SYD-JFK), 1 existing (PER- LHR) and 1

unknown; 2) A redeployment of 787-9’s (from PER-LHR) to new or existing markets

(CDG, FCO or JNB); and 3) Additional freight revenue, with A350 ULR’s having ~25% Samuel Seow, CFAAC

more belly capacity (vs 787-9). Revenue volatility also expected to reduce with the

+61-02-8225-4321

smaller gauge and more premium configuration of the aircraft. While we note halo

samuel.seow@citi.com

impacts like benefits to loyalty and corporate contracting have been excluded.

Is that “relatively” conservative? Compared to the FY23 announcement, the EBIT

and $400M working capital target remain unchanged. On face value this appears

relatively conservative, as it implies a reduction in expected returns (higher plane price