GREED & fear: The art of capitulation

Research evidence excerpt

GREED & fear: The art of capitulation

18 June 2026

The art of capitulation

Uluwatu Estate

As any investment banker can attest to, a memorandum of understanding is not a final deal, and a lot can

come unstuck in the interim. Still if the US has really agreed to the 14 draft conditions set out by Iran, and the

ceasefire deal signed on Sunday between US Vice President JD Vance and Iran’s Parliament Speaker

Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf suggests that is the case, then it is a remarkable development. First, Iran looks

like the clear winner. For the two key issues for Tehran are the unfreezing of its long frozen funds and the

removal of longstanding sanctions. The key initial demand here is the release of US$24bn in Iran’s blocked

funds during the 60-day negotiation period with, all importantly, half of that amount to be made available to

Iran before the negotiations begin.

These conditions make clear just how desperate Donald Trump was to announce some sort of ceasefire

ahead of the G7 meeting in Evian-les-Bains, France this week, ahead of the 4 July US 250th birthday anniversary

and with the World Cup now having commenced with most of the games being played in the US.

So, the master of the art of the deal has succumbed to what looks like almost a total capitulation after no less

than 38 U-turns in recent months in terms of threatening death and destruction on Iran only to reverse course

hours later with the latest twist and turn taking place last Friday. The key reason for Trump’s desperation to

do this deal, in GREED & fear’s view, has been continuing disastrous polling five months ahead of the mid-term

elections. Trump’s disapproval rating has been running almost as high as Richard Nixon’s during the worst