Energy Market Letter: Volume VI

Research evidence excerpt

Energy Market Letter: Volume VI

India | Energy EquityJuneResearch18, 2026

Exhibit 1 - Coverage universe stockEnergy Market Letter: Volume VI

performance since start of ME conflict

Daily ships through Hormuz have jumped to high single digits recently 10% Stock performance since 27th Feb

with the peace agreement. Freight rates are up 5% w/w and could take 5%0% 4%

-5%

-8%some time to normalize. GRMs moved up w/w and remain elevated. OMCs' -10%-5% -1% -1% -2%

-15%

-20% -18%marketing losses have narrowed after the sharp fall in crude. Petchem -11% -12%

(I)spreads are up >100% since the start of the conflict aiding Reliance's O2C -25% -22% GAIL IGL MAHGL GUJGA Reliance HPCL PLNG ONGC BPCL IOCL

Source: Bloomberg, Jefferiesprofitability. BPCL and IOCL are beneficiaries of lower crude and elevated .

GRMs. Exhibit 2 - Number of vessels crossing Strait

of Hormuz

Strait of Hormuz shipments picking up: Commercial vessel movement has jumped 39% w/ 180 Hormuz commercial vessel crossings (24hr vessel count)

w on average in the past seven days (Ex 2) and has reached high single digits against pre- 150

conflict level of 120. About 800mn bbl of crude inventories have been drawn down since the 12090

start of the conflict. 6030

Freight rates remain elevated: Freight rates increased 5% w/w and are up ~3x since the start 1-Jan-26 16-Jan-26 31-Jan-26 15-Feb-26 2-Mar-26 17-Mar-26 1-Apr-26 16-Apr-26 1-May-26 16-May-26 31-May-26 15-Jun-26of the conflict (Ex 6). Freight rates could remain elevated in the near term as supply chains are .

Source: Bloomberg, Jefferies

expected to take time to normalize.

Exhibit 3 - Average petchem spreads trend

Refining margins increase w/w, still elevated: Singapore GRMs are US$ 18/bbl over the Petchem margins (US$/tn)