CNMC Mortgage Probe: Collusion or Illusion?

Research evidence excerpt

CNMC Mortgage Probe: Collusion or Illusion?

Spain | Banks EquityJuneResearch18, 2026

Exhibit 1 - Front book mortgage pricing acrossCNMC Mortgage Probe: Collusion or Illusion?

major EU countries (April '26)

Earlier this week, the CNMC opened an investigation into major Spanish 4.5%4.0%

3.5%banks over potential collusion in the mortgage market. Somewhat

paradoxically, Spain currently offers the lowest mortgage rates among 3.0%2.5%

major EU economies. While mortgages, in isolation, are a low-RoTE product, 2.0%1.5%

1.0%they remain central to banks’ commercial positioning and cross-selling

strategies. We view the probe as a tail risk and do not expect it to result in 0.5%0.0%

meaningful fines for the sector. Germany Netherlands Belgium Austria Italy averageEZ Ireland Greece France Portugal Spain

.

CNMC announced a probe into possible mortgage collision. Earlier this week, the CNMC Source: ECB data, Jefferies

(Spanish National Markets and Competition Commission) launched an investigation into

Exhibit 2 - Spanish mortgage front book

possible anti-competitive practices of several major Spanish banks, including Bankinter, Banco pricing vs 12m Euribor, %

Santander, BBVA, Unicaja, CaixaBank, and Sabadell (see here). The CNMC is investigating 7%

FB Mortgage Rate 12m Euribor

whether certain public statements made by the executives of these banking entities constitute 6%

evidence of an infringement of the Spanish Competition Act. These statements could have 5%

revealed the banks' future commercial strategy, particularly regarding fixed-rate mortgage 4%

3%

interest rates, allowing entities in the sector to anticipate the future behaviour of their 2%

competitors. On the second page of this report, we show a selection of comments from the 1%