BHP Group: Another Capex Reset at Jansen

Research evidence excerpt

BHP Group: Another Capex Reset at Jansen

RGET | % TO PT $96.00 | +6%

1 spend, cumulative committed investment in Jansen now stands at roughly US$19.8bn vs. ~US

$15.1bn implied at the time of Stage 2 sanction. Drivers cited remain consistent: inflation, design/

scope changes, lower productivity, and - for both the Jan-26 S1 and today's S2 reset - additional FY (Jun) CHANGE TO JEFe JEF vs CONS

construction hours and material quantities. 2026 2027 2026 2027

REV NA NA NA NA

Returns Still Defended by BHP, but the Margin of Safety is Thin: Stage 2 economics screen EPS NA NA +1% +17%

as follows on BHP's updated assumptions: IRR of 11% and an 8-year payback at consensus

prices averaging US$330/t for FY31–41, with underlying EBITDA margins >65%. Real unit cash 2026 ($) 1HalfA 2Half FY

cost guidance is unchanged at US$114-130/t for the combined operation. Production targets are EPS 1.22 1.38 2.61

also unchanged: 4.36 Mtpa from Stage 2, taking combined Jansen output to 8.5 Mtpa (~10% of PREV

global potash supply) after a two-year ramp. For comparison, Stage 1 economics deteriorated more

materially in the Jan-26 update – IRR of 7.9–9.1% and payback of 11–15 years at consensus,

with margins of 63–64% – so, on paper, Stage 2 still screens as the better-return phase, helped by

infrastructure leverage.

Our Call: We expected a capex increase as BHP had stated Stage 2 capex estimates were under

review. However, this increase was somewhat more than we had anticipated. Our NPV/share for

the company falls 1.1% as a result of this new capex guide. BHP trades on a FY27 EV/EBITDA of

6.4x and FCF yield of 4.5% on our updated estimates. We see better value elsewhere in mining at

this time and reiterate our Hold rating on BHP.

Christopher LaFemina, CFA * | Equity Analyst