Private Credit Could be Key to Growth, But Capital Limits Near-Term Execution

Research evidence excerpt

Private Credit Could be Key to Growth, But Capital Limits Near-Term Execution

%

30%efficient earnings, with less reliance on realisation cycles. This supports a more resilient

44% 76%earnings mix, with a higher share of recurring revenues over time and reduced exposure to 87%

43% 52% 33%

66%

more cyclical income streams across the platform and investment lifecycle.

31% 37% 26% 21%

10% 19%Constraints: Capital limits near-term execution. Market conditions are becoming more 9%4%

MAM Private ARES APO BX CG KKR OWL

balanced. Fundraising has slowed and redemptions have increased, particularly in semi-liquid . Markets Private equity Private credit Real assets Other

vehicles, supporting improved discipline. However, this is occurring alongside early signs of Source: Company reports, Jefferies estimates

asset quality deterioration, implying higher underwriting risk. For MQG, we believe capital

Chart 2 - Private markets AUM growth by asset

remains a key constraint. While headline surplus capital is c$9b, it is materially reduced class (CAGR)

after regulatory and funding requirements, limiting capacity for a large near-term transaction. 27%

While this will build over time, it will require supportive markets and must balance competing

interests across the group. This further constrains flexibility and reinforces a more phased

12% 13% 11%approach to closing this gap. 12%

9%

Strategy: Build-led expansion more likely. We expect MAM to favour a measured, build-led

Private equity Private credit Real assetsapproach rather than a step-change deal. While partnerships may play a role, we see a lower

probability of a large acquisition given capital constraints.