Takeaways from June Investor Meeting: Guidance Affirmed

Research evidence excerpt

Takeaways from June Investor Meeting: Guidance Affirmed

USA | P&C Insurance/Insurtech

Arthur J. Gallagher EquityJuneResearch18, 2026

ESTIMATE CHANGETakeaways from June Investor Meeting:

RATING BUYGuidance Affirmed

PRICE $216.09^

Management largely affirmed guidance on both organic and margins, though

improved the RM organic guide for 2Q/FY26 on new business wins. The pricing PRICE TARGET | % TO PT $265.00 | +23%

environment remains bifurcated between Property and Casualty, with global 52W HIGH-LOW $327.34 - $190.75

Property RPC down 9% QTD (vs 1Q26 -7%), though the economy remains FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD) 98.1% | 403.66

consistently strong. We tweak estimates on non-core items incl. BBs/interest MARKET CAP $55.5B

expense. Reiterate Buy; PT remains $265. TICKER AJG ^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise

noted.

We moderate our '26/27E EPS by $0.05 each to $13.25/$14.95 on slightly lower 2Q26 M&A activity

revenues and slightly higher interest and banking costs, per guidance. Our '28E EPS estimate is

FY (Dec) CHANGE TO JEFe JEF vs CONS

unchanged at $16.75. See our upgrade note from last week for more details on our views, and see

below for a table of our estimates relative to Consensus. 2026 2027 2026 2027

REV <-1% <-1% -1% -1%

Economic outlook: Through mid-June, the company's daily revenue indications from premium EPS NM NM NM NM

audits, endorsements, and cancellations are still positive and suggest solid underlying business

activity for clients. US labor conditions remain favorable with job openings still trending above the 2026 ($) Q1A Q2 Q3 Q4 FY

number of people seeking opportunities. Health care costs continue to trend higher reflecting more EPS 4.47 2.82 3.10 2.86 13.25

advanced medical treatments and rising prescription drug costs.