Share price pressured on looming profitability concerns

Research evidence excerpt

Share price pressured on looming profitability concerns

Update

June 18, 2026 04:05 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+MBrilliance China Automotive | Asia Pacific Joey Xu, CFA

Equity Analyst

Share price pressured on Joey.Xu@morganstanley.comMorgan Stanley Europe S.E., Madrid Branch+ +852 3963-0337

Javier Martinez de Olcoz Cerdan

Equity Analystlooming profitability concerns Javier.Martinez.Olcoz@morganstanley.com +34 9141-81289

After a significant guidance reduction by BMW, Brilliance's share price fell notably Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+

Tim Hsiao

by 17% intra-day (vs. the Hang Seng Index's -1.8%), as the capital market caught up Equity Analyst

with expectations of potential further profitability pressure on BMW's sales in Tim.Hsiao@morganstanley.com +852 2848-1982

China. Specifically, after significant cash distributions in previous years and share Shelley Wang, CFA

price rally, we see limited remaining low hanging fruit (represented by special Shelley.Wang@morganstanley.com +852 3963-0047

dividend payouts), and Brilliance's share price is now more closely linked to BMW Peggy Wang

sales in China and corresponding profitability. Research Associate

Peggy.Pc.Wang@morganstanley.com +852 3963-3934

With an influx of high-end/luxury products offered by local brands – especially in

1H2026, incumbent luxury names have continued to face sales pressures, such as

BMW-Brilliance (-14.5% YoY for 5M2026) and BAIC-Mercedes (-28.9% YoY for

5M2026). More importantly, profitability tends to be more volatile than sales (on

both the upside and downside), amplified by scale effects for auto makers. This is

Brilliance China Automotive (1114.HK, 1114 HK)

also reflected in Brilliance's more significant JV profit decline for 2024/2025 – by

China Autos & Shared Mobility | China