ライオン 海外事業の定量化において不確実性は払拭していない、中立に評価を変更

Research evidence excerpt

ライオン 海外事業の定量化において不確実性は払拭していない、中立に評価を変更

Lion (4912 JP)

Equity Research

June 17, 2026

Exhibit 7 - Japan HPC Market YoY％ Price, Volume and Unit price

2025-2026 2026/1 2026/2 2026/3 2026/4 2026/5

Value Qty Price Value Qty Price Value Qty Price Value Qty Price Value Qty Price

歯磨き Tooth brush

歯ブラシ Tooth paste

洗口液 Dental linse

デンタル用品 Dental item, floss etc

ハンドソープ Handsoap

ボディソープ Body soap

制汗剤 Deodrant

洗濯用洗剤 Laundry detergent

柔軟剤 Fabric softener

台所用洗剤 Kithen cleanser

浴室用洗剤 Bathroom cleanser

トイレ用洗剤 Toilet cleanser

日用品市場計 HPC market total

解熱鎮痛薬 Pain fever relief

目薬 Eye drop

6市場計 OTC 6 market total

Source: Company comments, Jefferies estimate

. Notes: HPC market has 26items until 2025, and 23 itesm since Jan 2026.

What's priced in the analysisprohibited. Amid concerns over the shifting situation in the Middle East in March, soaring crude oil prices,

is and the company’s use of naphtha, the stock price had been trending downward from its spring

2026 high. In the Q1 earnings report, the company mentioned that while an additional ¥3–4bn in

costs would be added to the preliminary estimates, mitigation measures were in place. We think

the market likely has not yet fully priced in this projected reduction.distribution Since domestic margins are already in the high-single digits, boosting margins in overseas

operations is likely a key in the mid-term plan. We believe that if the cost materializes, it could lead

to disappointment.

Exhibit 8 - Lion: Consensus OP (JPY mn) and share price (JPY)Unauthorized

40000 2000

38000 1900

36000 1800

34000 1700

32000 1600

30000 1500

28000 1400

26000 1300

24000 1200

22000 1100

20000 1000hisae.kawamoto@jefferies.com. 1/6/2025 5/6/2025 9/6/2025 1/6/2026

for

FY25 Cons OP (left) FY26 Cons OP (left) Price (right)

.

Source: Factset