Blue Skies Ahead? Raising Estimates on Lower Oil Forecast

Research evidence excerpt

Blue Skies Ahead? Raising Estimates on Lower Oil Forecast

Idea

June 18, 2026 01:53 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley México, Casa de Bolsa, S.A. de C.V.+MLatin America Airlines | Latin America Jens Spiess, CFA

Equity Analyst

Blue Skies Ahead? Raising Jens.Spiess@morganstanley.comMorgan Stanley C.T.V.M. S.A.+ +52 55 5282-6614

Joao Pedro Franco dos Santos

Research AssociateEstimates on Lower Oil Joao.Pedro.Franco.Dos.Santos@morganstanley.com +55 11 3048-9524

Gustavo Soares

Research AssociateForecast

Gustavo.Soares@morganstanley.com +55 11 3048-6075

Updating estimates to reflect MS’ revised oil forecast, lifting Latin America Transportation & Infrastructure

Latin America

2026e EPS across coverage while 2027e remains broadly intact. Industry View In-Line

If Brent holds below US$80/bbl and capacity stays disciplined,

earnings could recover materially in 2H26.

Key Takeaways

We are updating our estimates to reflect MS’ revised Brent path post-US/Iran

MOU: US$90/bbl in 3Q26 and US$80/bbl from 4Q26 through 2027

Increasing our 2026 estimates on lower jet-fuel assumption — $3.67/$3.00/

$2.45 per gallon for 2Q/3Q/4Q26

2026e EPS increases ~28%/~28%/~33% for CPA/LTM/AERO; VLRS’ net loss

narrows to -US$192m from -US$236m previously

2027e estimates remain broadly intact; if fuel stays normalized, 2H earnings

could materially improve vs. 1H

Stay OW CPA, LTM and AERO

Increasing estimates on lower MS oil price forecast. Morgan Stanley’s global oil

strategist now sees Brent reaching US$90/bbl in 3Q26 (vs. US$100 previously), US

$80/bbl in 4Q26 (vs. US$95), US$80/bbl in 1Q27 (vs. US$85) following the US/Iran

MOU. 2Q-4Q27 brent estimates remained unchanged at US$80/bbl — see more

details here. Against this backdrop, we are updating our jet fuel assumptions across