Hays (HAYS.L): Portfolio pruning points to depressed price discovery

Research evidence excerpt

Hays (HAYS.L): Portfolio pruning points to depressed price discovery

Hays (HAYS.L)

17 June 2026 Citi Research

Hays

Valuation

We arrive at our target price of £0.33 using franchise valuation analysis, based on normalised sales, sustainable gross margins,

business model typical opex/ revenues and applying long-term market relative valuation multiples. We corroborate this TP via

DCF / EVA analysis assuming 2% perpetuity growth and WACC of 8%.

Risks

Key risks to our target price include: (1) Demand for temporary and permanent staff is highly correlated to the economic cycle,

difficult to predict, and volatile. (2) Hays’s visibility is limited, not exceeding four weeks, which complicates business planning.

(3) Hays’s UK bias makes it vulnerable to sudden changes in that marketplace. (4) AI disruption / displacement. (5) Stronger-

than-expected economic recovery.

If the impact from any of these factors proves to be more negative or positive than we anticipate, the stock could deviate

significantly from our target price.

Adecco Group AG

(ADEN.S; SFr15.71; 2; 16 Jun 26; 17:30)

We arrive at our CHF18 target price using a franchise valuation based on normalised sales, sustainable gross margins, business

typical opex / revenues and by applying a long-term market relative valuation multiple. We corroborate this target price

through DCF/EVA valuations, assuming 2% perpetuity growth and WACC of 8%.

We see the following risks to our investment view and target price:

Staffing growth is highly correlated to economic activity – earnings are highly sensitive to the economic cycle.

Due to the relatively high fixed costs associated with its branch network, earnings are strongly operationally geared.

Demand for staffing services can be affected by labour market legislation.