Japan Economic Perspectives: BoJ raises policy rate to 1% as broadly expected

Research evidence excerpt

Japan Economic Perspectives: BoJ raises policy rate to 1% as broadly expected

Global Research

16 June 2026ab

Japan Economic Perspectives Economics

JapanBoJ raises policy rate to 1% as broadly expected

Go Kurihara

Associate Economist

BoJ raises policy rate to 1% go.kurihara@ubs.com

+81-3-5293 3000

At today’s Monetary Policy Meeting, the BoJ raised the policy rate from 0.75% to 1.0%,

in line with our and market expectations. This is the first hike in six months (since

December) and lifts the rate to its highest level since 1995. With Governor Ueda absent

due to illness, Deputy Governor Himino chaired the meeting. At the previous meeting,

the BoJ refrained from hiking due to low confidence in the outlook, as Middle East

developments posed both upside inflation and downside growth risks. At this meeting,

reduced uncertainty and elevated upside inflation risks prompted the hike. Board

member Asada, appointed on April 1 under the Takaichi administration, was the sole

dissenter, favoring no rate hike.

As expected, the statement wording was slightly revised from “real interest rates are at

significantly low levels” to “financial conditions have been accommodative.” We

interpret this as a change in expression rather than a signal about the change of terminal

rate. Deputy Governor Uchida confirmed it was merely a wording change.

Reduction in JGB purchases to end in March 2027

The BoJ will maintain its current plan of reducing JGB purchases by ¥200bn per quarter

through March 2027, after which reductions will stop and purchases will continue at

around ¥2tn per month (vs. ¥2.1tn reported in the media, with little practical

difference). Tamura was the sole dissenter, proposing to extend reductions through Q1

2028. No interim review is planned.