European Insurance Reinsurers Reserve Review: Cookie jar top-ups

Research evidence excerpt

European Insurance Reinsurers Reserve Review: Cookie jar top-ups

Global Research

16 June 2026ab

European Insurance Equities

Europe including UKReinsurers Reserve Review: Cookie jar top-ups

Insurance

Will Hardcastle, CFA

4 key takeaways from Reserving analysis Analyst

Our key takeaways from our European Reinsurance Reserve triangles analysis are; 1.The will.hardcastle@ubs.com

2025 UWY saw the lowest initial loss booking in 12 years of data, which makes sense +44-20-7567 9763

given benign cat year and benefits of the hard market. 2. Added resilience most evident Qian Lu

at Hannover Re through the triangles in our view, but the Scor Risk Adjustment uplift is Analyst

also very transparent. 3. Property lines continued to be a significant source of good qian-za.lu@ubs.com

news, with further evidence of additional prudency >€500mn YoY at all companies, 4. +44-20-7567 4657

All companies continued to strengthen Liability lines, some of which resiliency build, Chloe Ryan

some Best Estimate addition driven. Associate Analyst

chloe.ryan@ubs.com

Property could be a bigger support than we thought +44-20-7567 3505

Property continued to be a major source of release for the European Reinsurers in 2025. Nasib Ahmed, FIA

Given the short-tail, much of this related to the most recent years, inclusive of Hurricane Analyst

Ian (2022) and Milton (2024). Given the benign catastrophe year in 2025, it would be nasib-za.ahmed@ubs.com

+44-20-7568 8231

expected to carry lower absolute resilience, though we note this has been countered by

an uplift in IBNR:Ultimate levels vs. historical levels which would imply >$500mn

additional conservatism all else equal per company. In a normal catastrophe year, we

would expect this to be pulled on, with quality of loss bookings in 2026 triangles likely