Meeting Takeaways: Data Center Momentum Accelerating; AI Risk Limited

Research evidence excerpt

Meeting Takeaways: Data Center Momentum Accelerating; AI Risk Limited

2026 so far, with gross revenue reaching $950mm in the 1Q and currently at a run-rate

of $4bn annually. Core EBITDA (SOP) from data centers and other infrastructure is at a

run-rate of $600mm currently (17% of our EBITDA estimate from 3Q25-2Q26).

Importantly, management believes both revenue and SOP can double over the next five

years, organically. We estimate that the business is growing 20%+ organically right now,

which could potentially be faster if it was not for labor constraints.

We believe growth will likely be well above this since targeted M&A is focused in

this area (see detail below).

Interestingly, CBRE estimates that 80% of its data center revenue opportunity is

after the data center is built. These services include brokerage, ongoing facilities

management, retrofitting older data centers, and improving security and

cybersecurity. Additionally, within five years, the data centers typically need

significant upgrades. As such, CBRE should have significant synergies across its

business lines, which all touch data centers to some degree.

In 2025, data centers contributed ~15% of CBRE's core EBITDA, with

approximately half of that generated by land lifts in the Trammell Crow Company

business.

Figure 1: CBRE Group - Annual Infrastructure Gross Revenue Across All 4

Segments

All ro tr

as oss

RE G fr

Acr

CB In

enue l

Rev ua

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ross

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re G -

uctu up

4 Se gmen ts

Source: Company reports, UBS

Note: $ in billions, depicts gross revenue

M&A a big initiative, but will not preclude buybacks

CBRE has established a strong M&A track record and M&A remains a high priority for

the company, particularly in the Infrastructure space. M&A execution is expected to