Global Strategy Asia FX/Rates: Hormuz Discount Fades

Research evidence excerpt

Global Strategy Asia FX/Rates: Hormuz Discount Fades

Global Research

16 June 2026ab

Global Strategy Global Strategy

GlobalAsia FX/Rates: Hormuz Discount Fades

Rohit Arora

Strategist

Hormuz nears Reopening, Asia Gets Relief rohit-b.arora@ubs.com

+65-6495 5232

The MOU to reopen the Strait of Hormuz removes a key tail risk to global energy flows.

Given Asia’s outsized exposure and Q2 underperformance in parts of South Asia, Teck Quan Koh

Strategistmarkets responded with relief: Select Asian Equities gained >5%, currencies rose 2-3%,

teck-quan.koh@ubs.com

while 5y swaps fell by 20bps. From here, we see the energy related risk premium as +65-6495 4416

largely priced out, leaving only tactical upside amid persistent structural headwinds for

South Asia FX and limits to a sustained rates rally. Manik Narain

manik.narain@ubs.com

SOH hasn’t been the only market driver - AI and US Resilience Still Matter +44-20-7568 3635

Tail risks of elongated energy disruptions did weigh on assets in South Asia's energy

importing economies, and on global inflation expectations. But risk assets globally have

largely been insulated since the early April ceasefire. Since then, two dominant themes

have driven global financial markets: AI led equity dispersion and resilient US growth

with sticky core inflation. Neither shifts with a SOH reopening. Nor do the bottom up

drags facing select South Asia markets. Separating these forces is essential before

identifying where any residual SOH discount truly remains in assets.

Hormuz Discount Is Largely Unwound

For the reasons above, neither LatAm carry outperformance versus Asia, nor South Asia

FX underperformance versus North Asia, can be fully attributed to the SOH closure - nor

can be the surge in Asia rates.