China Banks: Buying quality growth

Research evidence excerpt

China Banks: Buying quality growth

Global Research

16 June 2026ab

China Banks Equities

ChinaBuying quality growth

Banks

Helen Li, CFA

We prefer banks with fast NPAT growth and high ROE potential Analyst

We assume coverage of China regional bankswith a tilt toward Buy ratings, preferring helen-za.li@ubs.com

names with fast NPAT growth and superior ROE potential, along with defensive +852-2971 6066

dividend yields. We have Buy ratings on BOHZ, BOJS, BONJ, BONB, CQRCB-A/H and May Yan

CSRCB (up from Neutral), and Neutral ratings on BOCD, BOBJ, BOCS, BOSH and Analyst

Huishang Bank. While China’s overall TSF and loan growth continued to moderate to a may.yan@ubs.com

respective 7.7% and 5.5% YoY by May 2026, regional divergence remains clear, with +852-2971 7157

Sichuan, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Chongqing still delivering high-single- to double-digit

loan growth. We view leading regional banks in those faster-growing provinces as key

beneficiaries of this macro tailwind. In addition, their relatively small sizes and scope for

market share gains amid industry-wide consolidation may enable growth above that of

their underlying footprints. As they are supported by fewer LPR cuts in 2025 and deposit

repricing, we expect leading regional banks to deliver double-digit NII growth,

underpinning rapid NPAT growth of high-single to double digits in 2026. Our top picks

are BOHZ and BOJS.

Beyond NII, two levers may further boost NPAT growth

In addition to strong core revenue growth, we identify two potential levers if banks seek

to deliver even faster NPAT growth: 1) As financial investments take up a larger share of

banks’ asset mixes and portfolios shift toward FVOCI assets, accumulated MTM gains

could become a potential revenue source through bond disposals in China’s