Housing Market Chartbook: Will the Spring Momentum Carry into the Summer?

Research evidence excerpt

Housing Market Chartbook: Will the Spring Momentum Carry into the Summer?

Canada | Banks EquityJuneResearch16, 2026

Figure 1 - Monthly Home Sales vs. 10YHousing Market Chartbook: Will the Spring

Monthly Moving Average

80,000Momentum Carry into the Summer? 70,000

60,000

50,000

40,000Home sales activity jumped in May, driving sales-to-new-listings ratio higher

30,000

20,000and months of inventory lower. With seller's and buyer's expectations 10,000

increasingly aligned, home sale prices have also stabilized in May. As 0Jan-07 Jul-09 Jan-12 Jul-14 Jan-17 Jul-19 Jan-22 Jul-24

highlighted by CREA, the handoff from May into June is typically the busiest .Source: Canadian RealHome SalesEstate Association;10Y Mthly MovingJefferiesAvg

time of the year. Combined with lower expectations of rate cuts in 2026 and

new supply drying up, home sales activity and price momentum could carry into

the summer.

Home sales jumped in May. According to data released by CREA, home sales in Canada rose 5.5%

m/m in May but are still down 0.6% from a year ago. On the pricing side, the average home sales

price grew 1.0% m/m, +1.5% compared to last year.

“ The national sales increase from April to May was broad-based but driven disproportionately

by Ontario, suggesting the HST rebate on new builds may have only briefly drawn the attention

of buyers away from the existing home market. While it was just the first month in 2026 to

see any meaningful upward momentum in headline demand, under the surface conditions have

been improving for some time. ”

- Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s Senior Economist

New listings ease following strong spring listings in April, driving sales-to-new listing ratio

higher. New listings fell back 1.0% m/m in May, driving the sales-to-new listings ratio higher to 49.2%