Thoughts on China’s New Energy HDT Plan: The Long Road Turns Electric

Research evidence excerpt

Thoughts on China’s New Energy HDT Plan: The Long Road Turns Electric

ort, Jefferies•

toward electrification, while relaxed local road access lifts utilization and TCO for fleet

Exhibit 3 - BEV Wins on Total Cost: 6-Year

operators, typically more valuable than a one-off purchase rebate. Under current subsidies TCO Across HDT Powertrains Under National

and diesel prices, we estimates that 6-year TCO for a BEV HDT comes in at RMB 941k vs. Subsidies

RMB 2,525k for diesel, a ~60% gap that is structural rather than promotional. 3000 6-Year Total Cost of Ownership by Powertrain

On infrastructure, the rollout of 30,000 km of zero-carbon corridors and around 3,000 2500•

2000 charging and swapping stations extends electrification from closed-loop settings into

long-haul routes for the first time. The waiver of demand charges through 2030 improves '000RMB 1500

1000 station economics, while broader financing support including special-purpose bonds,

500 bank credit, guarantees and corporate bonds, helps draw private capital into capex-heavy,

0 Diesel HDT LNG HDT BEV HDT (Full Vehicle) BEV HDT (BaaS Model) long-payback assets. .

On the ecosystem side, unified interfaces, communication protocols and operating Source: Jefferies•

platforms may reduce some closed-ecosystem advantages for incumbents, but should Exhibit 4 - We expect EV penetration to reach

improve interoperability, replicability and network scalability across the industry. Overall, 33% in HDT market for 2026

this round of policy is less about boosting near-term sales and more about making large- 3530 4540

26.4

33.0% 35

25 23.1

30 (%) scale adoption operationally viable. units)

('000 20 25 Rate

20 15 Penetration

15Penetration is likely to pick up first in closed-loop operating scenarios where policy support VolumeSales