1Q27 Preview: Can Earnings Revisions Justify the Multiple Re-Rating?

Research evidence excerpt

1Q27 Preview: Can Earnings Revisions Justify the Multiple Re-Rating?

Idea

June 16, 2026 04:46 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMCarmax Inc | North America Daniela M Haigian

Equity Analyst

1Q27 Preview: Can Earnings Daniela.Haigian@morganstanley.comAndrew S Percoco +1 212 761-6071

Andrew.Percoco@morganstanley.com +1 212 296-4322

Revisions Justify the Multiple Jahvonte G Bain

Research Associate

Jahvonte.Bain@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-9231

Re-Rating? Katherine A Bennorth

Katie.A.Bennorth@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-3753

Recent investor feedback reflects cautious optimism in a

turnaround, though with the stock +40% in the last month and Carmax Inc (KMX.N, KMX UN)

trading at 23x FY27 EPS, we wait for evidence of share gains, Autos & Shared Mobility | United States of America

Stock Rating Equal-weight

GPU resiliency, and operating leverage to return to earnings Industry View In-Line

Price target $35.00

growth - along with greater insight into strategy. Shr price, close (Jun 15, 2026) $52.21

Mkt cap, curr (mm) $11,881

The debate around KMX has intensified in 1Q27 as investors look for tangible 52-Week Range $71.97-30.26

evidence of a turnaround. A cautious optimism around 1) activist involvement and Fiscal Year Ending 02/26 02/27e 02/28e 02/29e

leadership reset, 2) positive intraquarter volume data, and 3) a lowered bar for EPS ($)** 2.82 2.06 2.36 2.76

Prior EPS ($)** - - - -

execution has driven the stock up ~43% in the past month, though we note a similar P/E 15.3 25.4 22.1 18.9

run-up into the 4Q26 print (+20% the month before) and a supportive market EPS ($)§ 2.70 2.30 2.76 3.12

backdrop (easing fears of ME conflict escalation) driving multiple expansion, Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare

framework

towards ~23x FY27 cons EPS.