Equinor ASA (EQNR.OL): Revamped Norway Strategy Is a Significant Shift

Research evidence excerpt

Equinor ASA (EQNR.OL): Revamped Norway Strategy Is a Significant Shift

Equinor ASA (EQNR.OL)

16 June 2026 Citi Research

Equinor ASA

Valuation

Our NOK 260 target price for Equinor is based on a DCF valuation. Our DCF is calculated using Citi Research’s commodity view

of $91.5/bbl 2026E and long-term US$55/bbl (real, 2021 money), a terminal growth rate of 0%, spot NOK/USD of 9.3, and a

discount rate of 7.0% (CAPM).

Risks

We consider the following risks to the investment case and achievement of our target price.

• Commodity prices: Equinor’s earnings are sensitive to changes in oil and natural gas prices, all of which can fluctuate

significantly as a function of economic and geopolitical forces.

• Currency: We estimate that c.30% of Equinor’s cost base is in NOK. However, we believe this will adjust relatively quickly on

exchange rate movements given the global nature of the oil industry, which is based primarily in USD.

• Political: Changing political forces can impact on Equinor’s legal ownership, fiscal take and pace of development activity in

any country in which it operates. Around 80% of its current production is from Norway.

• Natural and man-made disasters: Equinor’s operating activities can be severely disrupted by the effects of natural disasters

or industrial accidents. Accidents may bear the burden of additional costs for remediation, fines, and from restrictions on future

business activities.

• Strategic stakes: The Norwegian government owns a 67% stake in Equinor. We do not believe it likely that the Norwegian

government will look to sell down its stake. However, an equity overhang situation could be adverse for its shares.

If the impact of these risk factors is more or less negative than we anticipate, the share price could fail to achieve/exceed