Global Semis: The CPU Renaissance? Beneficiaries of a $223bn TAM...

Research evidence excerpt

Global Semis: The CPU Renaissance? Beneficiaries of a $223bn TAM...

17 June 2026

Global Semiconductors

Global Semis: The CPU Renaissance? Beneficiaries of a $223bn

TAM...

The shift from gen AI paradigm from 1.0 (chatbot) to 2.0 (agent) greatly increases David Dai, CFA

+852 2918 5704 server CPU demand. As discussed in SoftBank, Arm: From GenAI to Agentic AI; Initiating

david.dai@bernsteinsg.com with Outperform Ratings, Agentic AI involves heavily autonomous task orchestration and

execution, which boosts the CPU workload vs. GPU. With the shift from chatbot to agentic

Stacy A. Rasgon, Ph.D. AI, the CPU:GPU ratio for AI data center is surging from 1:4 or 1:8 to 1:1 or higher.

+1 213 559 5917

stacy.rasgon@bernsteinsg.com

We raise server CPU TAM to $223bn ($137bn in 2030 in the base case, 6x of the

2025 TAM of $37bn. This assumes $3.5tn of AI data center capex, and 1:1 CPU:GPU Qingyuan Lin, Ph.D.

+852 2123 2654 pairing ratio for inference. An alternative approach with 120mn CPU cores/GW yields

qingyuan.lin@bernsteinsg.com similar TAM. Our previous forecast of $137bn is now the bear case (assuming $3tn AI

capex, 1:2 CPU:GPU), while the upside now sits at $330bn ($4tn AI capex, 1.5:1 CPU:GPU).

Mark Li

+852 2123 2645

mark.li@bernsteinsg.com Raising Arm PT to $500, as Arm is the structural beneficiary of the renaissance

of CPUs for agentic AI. Arm architecture is suitable for agentic AI workload given its

Juho Hwang unparalleled power efficiency. In addition, Arm is shifting from just IP provider to CPU

+852 2123 2632 maker, aiming to capture $15bn revenue by CY2030, but we now forecast $22bn as we

juho.hwang@bernsteinsg.com

revise CPU TAM to $223bn in 2030 (from $137bn). Arm’s 2030 EPS (FYE31) is now lifted

to $11.79 ($9.83 prior).