Scenario Analysis: Gazing At The Regulatory Crystal Ball (Part II)

Research evidence excerpt

Scenario Analysis: Gazing At The Regulatory Crystal Ball (Part II)

India | Insurance

PB Fintech EquityJuneResearch17, 2026

COMPANY UPDATEScenario Analysis: Gazing At The Regulatory

RATING BUYCrystal Ball (Part II)

PRICE INR1,589.00^

PB has derated c.20% over last 6 months due to concerns around

commission regulations and founder exit, despite largely unchanged PRICE TARGET | % TO PT INR1,950 | +23%

consensus earnings. We est. the price is already factoring a 10% 52W HIGH-LOW INR1,977.75 - INR1,334.20

commission cut. Further, the business model is unlikely to change with FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD) 74.4% | 37.73

renewal profitability unchanged. Risks from founder stake sale may be MARKET CAP INR735.2B | $7.8B

overdone as business management teams are well-entrenched. Trades at TICKER POLICYBZ IN ^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise

53x FY27 EV/Adj. EBITDA, with EBITDA doubling over FY27-29e. noted.

Commission regulation: What is the latest? Structure: In our Jan'26 report, we had highlighted FY (Mar) CHANGE TO JEFe JEF vs CONS

risks to PB's earnings should first year commissions face insurance caps. Our discussions 2027 2028 2027 2028

indicate the regulator could also look at: (i) deferment of upfront commissions or (ii) an REV NA NA NA NA

absolute reduction in commissions. Should the latter play out, it would result in no offset for

EPS NA NA NA NA

the loss in first year commissions. While this would imply a fall in net payouts for distributors,

it could also result in higher growth as the cut in commissions is passed onto customers.

2027 (INR) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY

Also, there have been discussions about having differential commission structures for large

EPS -- -- -- -- 23.14

distributors (e.g., banks/brokers) and agents. Timing: Likely by the end of the month.