Spain Banks: Assessing the earnings risk from digital deposit competition

Research evidence excerpt

Spain Banks: Assessing the earnings risk from digital deposit competition

Viewpoint |

17 Jun 2026 00:00:00 ET │ 36 pages

Spain Banks

Assessing the earnings risk from digital deposit competition

CITI'S TAKE

Borja Ramirez Segura AC

Digital competition in the Spanish deposit landscape is rising, with +44-20-7508-0206

neobanks such as Revolut and Trade Republic offering c.3-3.5% deposit borja.ramirez@citi.com

rates for new customers, yet the 3 large incumbent banks continue to

dominate the deposit market, with c.58% share in deposit flows in the last Anand Demble

12 months (with cost of deposits either in-line or below peer average, +44-20-7986-4056

supported by their franchises in payroll accounts). Inside we build a scenario anand.gopal.demble@citi.com

analysis for digital deposits. We estimate that a pessimistic scenario would

imply c.-2% downside for EPS 2028E on average, higher for SAB, UNI, BKT Andre Nemec

at c.-5%, and lower for SAN and BBVA at c.-1% (Figure 24). We prefer BBVA +44-20-7986-2889

and SAN among the international banks, and CABK among the domestics andre.nemec@citi.com

(all Buy-rated).

Shrey Srivastava

Selected digital banks gathered c.7% of system deposit flows during 1Q25-1Q26 +44-20-7986-2608

— ING Spain remains the standout performer, taking c.4% of deposit flows 1Q25- shrey.srivastava@citi.com

1Q26, followed by Revolut, with c.2% share of deposit flows. Meanwhile, Spain's 3 Andrew Coombs, CFA

large incumbent banks collectively captured c.58% share of deposit flows during

+44-20-7986-40531Q25-1Q26 (in-line with their market share in terms of deposit stock), while

maintaining deposit costs either in line with peers (BBVA, SAN) or below them andrew.coombs@citi.com

(CABK), supported by their payroll accounts franchises. See pages 4-6.