Resetting the Business Model?

Research evidence excerpt

Resetting the Business Model?

Bayerische Motoren Werke AG (BMW GR)

Equity Research

June 17, 2026

The Long View: BMW

Investment Thesis Risk/Reward - 12 Month View

• The launch of NEUE KLASSE should help appreciate BMW's independent

Upside : Downside

thinking and capital-efficient strategy to transition into EVs by preserving 110 1.79 : 1

powertrain flexibility and move the goalpost on recycling/ESG.

100 100 (+47%)

• Balancing transformation and cash returns have been a highlight of

investment case, with BMW determined to distribute 100% of annual FCF 90

through dividend and buy-backs. 80

• Peak capital spending at BMW in 2024 supports improving cash conversion 70 70 (+3%)

and continued cash returns to shareholders. 60

50 50 (-26%)

2025 2026 +12 mo.

Base Case, Upside Scenario, Downside Scenario,

€70, +3% €100, +47% €50, -26%

• BMW looks better equipped than many peers • Acceleration of EV/PHEV cost reduction • China share continues to decline and becomes

to navigate electrification and the software further easing emissions compliance and BEV a niche market.

transition. profitability. • Slow progress in implementing electrification

• Methodical planning of EV transition, now • China share recovers, competition rationalises across US and Europe slows fixed cost

accelerating while maintaining powertrain and remains a profit centre coverage.

flexibility. Early strategic implementation of Life- • Investment ratio continuing to decline and • Revenue shrinks avg ~3-5% for 3-5 years from

Cycles approach, including launch of Neue acceleration of inventory reduction (inventories 2027, reported auto EBIT margins avg 3% until

Klasse product family as SDV and multi-energy. reduction in excess of WIP increase). China footprint restructured, China competition