Masan: A strong consumption proxy in Vietnam

Research evidence excerpt

Masan: A strong consumption proxy in Vietnam

of WinCommerce revenue in 5M26—is likely to be a key growth driver, 12/26E 4,950.31 4,828.67 -2 4,315.82

with management targeting 1,000-1,500 net new store openings this year. These 12/27E 6,273.95 6,125.53 -2 5,586.65

smaller-format stores require lower capital outlay and offer quicker payback periods, 12/28E - 8,176.44 - 7,576.96

supporting higher returns. As scale builds, we expect WinCommerce's contribution to

group EBITDA to rise materially, reaching about 25% by FY28, up from 15% in FY25. Alex Manoonpol

Analyst

alex.manoonpol@ubs.com

Deleveraging initiatives to support earnings growth

+662-613 5770

Masan has made steady progress in strengthening its balance sheet since leverage

Permada Darmonopeaked in FY23, when net debt to EBITDA reached 3.9x. The ratio declined to 2.7x last

year (from 2.9x at end-FY24), and we expect it to fall below 2.0x by FY27. This permada.darmono@ubs.com

improvement reflects a combination of factors: a recovery in profitability at Masan +65-6495 3137

Consumer from a low base, increasing economies of scale at WinCommerce, and

Trang Nguyen

stronger performance at Masan High-Tech Materials, supported by elevated tungsten

prices. Enhanced free cash flow generation should facilitate further debt reduction and trang-za.nguyen@ubs.com

enable refinancing at lower cost. The group's recently secured US$750m syndicated +65-6495 2495

loan facility, for example, is expected to deliver annual interest savings of US$4.4m.

Valuation: SOTP-based price target of D105,000; Buy

We base our price target on a SOTP methodology, using: 1) DCF based on WACC of

9.3% and LT growth of 4% for Masan Consumer and WinCommerce, 2) pegged 2026E

EV/EBITDA multiple of 6x and 7.8x for Masan MeatLife and Masan High-Tech Materials,