Copper: Tariffs, Premiums, and Consequences

Research evidence excerpt

Copper: Tariffs, Premiums, and Consequences

raw material imports starting on Jan 1 2027, spot price premium is still low, but the

scaling up to 30% starting in Jan 2028. Commerce was instructed to provide the President with an premium widens to nearly 10% in the

updated report on copper by June 30, 2026, so that Trump could decide whether to put in place futures markets). We expect either a

these recommended tariffs on refined copper imports. The U.S. then added copper to the list of Trump announcement for tariffs in the

critical minerals in Nov 2025, and, on June 1, 2026, Trump made some adjustments to the tariff next month or a delayed decision until

regime for copper, steel and aluminum. However, most importantly, imports of refined copper are sometime next year. We do not expect

still not subject to tariffs. This is critical as imports account for 40-50% of refined copper supply an explicit decision against tariffs, but a

in the US. Extending tariffs to refined copper would materially reinforce price premiums in the US decision against would likely be a short-

(as we have seen in steel and aluminum) and further tighten the domestic market until the industry term negative for prices.

invests in downstream refining and smelting capacity (would take several years). Refined copper

tariffs in the US would be a relative positive for domestic copper producers (especially FCX but also COMEX40% Copper Price Premium Over LME

Rio, HBM and IE). 35%30%

25%

Impact and Outlook: In anticipation of tariffs on refined copper imports into the US, prices on the 20%15%

10%

5%COMEX have moved higher than prices on the LME, and inventories on the COMEX have risen to 0%

-5%multi-year highs, although the current premium of COMEX over LME is still below the 15% tariff that

.