Wrap Stars: Trends in European Paper & Packaging Prices (June)

Research evidence excerpt

Wrap Stars: Trends in European Paper & Packaging Prices (June)

EUROPE | Paper & Packaging EquityJuneResearch12, 2026

Wrap Stars: Trends in European Paper & Stora Enso and UPM management in New

York at Jefferies Industrials Conference onPackaging Prices (June) 9-10 September: Register (HERE)

We highlight EU P&P pricing trends on p2-11. Germany containerboard

(box) prices were stable MoM in June, yet our channel checks indicate that Exhibit 1 - Germany Recycled & Virgin

Containerboard Index Prices

€ 1,00025-30% of producers (so far), continue to push for +€60/t pricing into July.

€ 900 865

€ 800While it has taken longer to materialise, the US containerboard market has

€ 700 715

€ 600finally tightened from the capacity closures. We see tight conditions, with

our contacts expecting some of the $50/ton June increase to see traction. €€ 500400

Virgin (Kraftliner) 10 years avg (+€80/t)

. Recycled (Testliner) 10 years avg (+€60/t)

EU containerboard (paper for box) prices stable MoM in June: The EU #2 (SAICA) and #4 Source: RISI (FOEX), Jefferies

(Prinzhorn) in recycled cboard had announced a further +€60/t (+8%) hike attempt (here), but

Exhibit 2 - Europe Recycled Containebroardthis failed in June. Our channel checks identified other producers following suit, implying that EBITDA margins (90th percentile)

25-30% of the market (so far) is continuing to push for pricing into July. We are sceptical High cost mills have been EBITDA or cash

given the industry oversupply (85% operating rates), and need to see closures or the larger negative for >2yrs (JEFe 45MWh Dutch TTF)

integrated box makers following to become more optimistic. Cost pressures remain for mills 30%20%

(JEFe: 10-15% cost curve making losses), even after the achieved €100/t (or +16%) cost push 10%

pricing in Mar-Apr.