Japan Retail Sector: March-May results outlook: earnings firm overall

Research evidence excerpt

Japan Retail Sector: March-May results outlook: earnings firm overall

Global Research

15 June 2026ab

Japan Retail Sector Equities

JapanMarch-May results outlook: earnings firm overall

Retail

Takahiro Kazahaya

Summary Analyst

We have summarised the outlook for March-May results for the stocks we cover (Figure takahiro.kazahaya@ubs.com

1Resultsoutlokforourcoveragecompaniesandearningscalendar and Figure 2Resultsoutlokforourcoveragecompanies(quarterly)). While the TOPIX retail share price index has underperformed TOPIX +81-3-5208 6226

since the start of 2026, we believe OP for the March-May earnings period at companies Kazuki Oike

under our coverage is likely to prove firm and exceed company plans across the board. Associate Analyst

We accordingly believe concerns over corporate earnings across the sector are kazuki.oike@ubs.com

unwarranted. +81-3-5208 6964

Fast Retailing: Expected to announced Q3 results after the 9 July market close,

forecasting OP up 22% yoy

We forecast business profit rising 23% yoy in Q3 to ¥174.5bn (including ¥53.1bn at

UNIQLO Japan, ¥100.8bn at UNIQLO International) and OP rising 22% yoy to ¥178.8bn

(IBES consensus: ¥176.2bn). We believe the company may upwardly revise its plan for

OP in FY8/26 in light of strong Q3 performance. We forecast business profit in FY8/26

rising 30% yoy to ¥717.4bn, exceeding the company’s forecast of ¥690.0bn, with OP

improving 29% yoy to ¥728.9bn, surpassing the company’s forecast of ¥700.0bn and

the IBES consensus of ¥702.4bn.

Seven & i Holdings: Expected to announced Q1 results after the 9 July market

close, forecasting firm CPG

We forecast Q1 FY2/27 OP increasing 24% yoy to ¥80.5bn, exceeding the IBES

consensus of ¥62.0bn. We believe OP at Seven-Eleven Inc. will likely drive overall