Global Macro Chart of the Day: (#102): The economic impact of the world cup

Research evidence excerpt

Global Macro Chart of the Day: (#102): The economic impact of the world cup

Global Research

15 June 2026ab

Global Macro Chart of the Day Economics

Global(#102): The economic impact of the world cup

Arend Kapteyn

Economist

The impact is likely to be very small - perhaps 0.05% GDP arend.kapteyn@ubs.com

+44-20-7567 0531

The US Weekly includes a useful discussion of the potential economic impact of the

2026 world cup on the US economy. In principle, the effects could be larger than in past

tournaments, given the expanded format (104 matches versus the usual 64), which

should amplify consumer spending, tourism and infrastructure outlays. The US is set to

host roughly 75% of matches, compared with 12% in Canada and 13% in Mexico.

However, past world cups have typically been preceded by highly optimistic ex ante

estimates that have failed to materialise. For example, the 2002 world cup co-hosted by

South Korea and Japan was projected to add 2.2% and 0.6% to GDP, respectively, but

both are believed to have lost money overall (link). Forecasts tend to systematically

overstate the impact by failing to account for substitution and crowding-out effects —

increased tourism may deter other visitors, domestic spending may simply displace other

consumption, and a significant share of revenues accrues to FIFA rather than host

economies.

Indeed, one study found that the last time the US hosted the world cup in 1994, the

average host city experienced income $712mn lower than forecast, with the overall

impact on the US economy estimated at –$9.3bn. Another study found no statistically

significant effects on employment or unemployment in host metropolitan areas,

including in sectors such as leisure and hospitality.