Global Economics & Strategy Deep Speak: ECB press conference

Research evidence excerpt

Global Economics & Strategy Deep Speak: ECB press conference

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Global Economics & Strategy Economics

GlobalDeep Speak: ECB press conference

Elena Amoruso

Strategist

elena.amoruso@ubs.com

A new LLM-based tracker of central bank sentiment and thematic shifts +44-20-7567 0239

We developed an AI-based approach to measure policy tone for the Fed, ECB, and Arend Kapteyn

BoJ. Using LLMs, we analyze policy-relevant remarks in speeches, interviews and Economist

press conferences and score them on a hawkish/dovish scale, offering insights into arend.kapteyn@ubs.com

+44-20-7567 0531

sentiment shifts as well as thematic drivers and speakers' contributions. Updated

daily, the dataset spans over two decades and is accessible via an interactive Reinhard Cluse

dashboard and a Python API (>Access Dataset). Economist

reinhard.cluse@ubs.com

+44-20-7568 6722

Hawkish signals return as inflation dominates; conditional language recedes

According to our model, President Lagarde's tone showed a marked hawkish shift

relative to the April press conference (Figure 1LagardereadsmorehawkishthaninApril.), bringing her to the hawkish end of the

ECB speaker distribution over the last month, followed by Isabel Schnabel and Joachim

Nagel (Figure 2.andisnowleadingthehawkishshift). Communication became less hedged, with a sharp increase in explicit

hawkish statements and a corresponding decline in mixed or conditional language

(Figure 3Hawkishsignalingbecomesmoreexplicit).

The shift was overwhelmingly driven by inflation concerns. Inflation tone rose to levels

last seen in 2022, and was accompanied by a re-emergence of hawkish interest-rate