Daily Commodities Note: US-Iran deal complete: Trump

Research evidence excerpt

Daily Commodities Note: US-Iran deal complete: Trump

from the

project at the time of writing. Link to note. Source: UBS.

Mining Strategy: Postcards from USA & Canada. Macro: Looking past ME

demand risks to AI trade & structural deficits. The ‘debasement/hard asset’ trade

resulted in a synchronised upcycle in 1Q26 led by copper/gold; investor interest remains

high, but focus has changed. Commodity/mining investors (& broader market?) are

largely looking through near-term downside risks to economic growth/demand due to

‘higher for longer’ energy prices and the impact on rates, and instead focusing on

secular growth drivers (supported by AI optimism) with sentiment towards copper/

aluminium generally positive. Views in coal are mixed (thermal supportive vs met

sceptical). Sentiment for iron ore remains bearish/indifferent but after holding up better

than expected for years, investors need to see lower prices to believe them. The shift in

sentiment towards gold has been most pronounced and the biggest surprise. Since the

start of the ME conflict historical correlations between gold & Fed rate expectations/real

rates/USD have re-established; ‘buy the dip’ mentality has evaporated, investors are

starting to question if this is the start of a bear market with a lot more to go and

reluctant step in and call the bottom (why $4,000/oz?). Link to note. Source: UBS.

Indonesia Coal Sector - Positive Policy Developments. No gross split

implementation for the mining sector. With an official public address on 8 June, the

Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) assured there will be no

implementation of a gross split scheme for the mining sector. That may alleviate

concerns about implementation of a new profit-sharing scheme that would have a