Japan Retail Sector: US and Iran announced ceasefire agreement

Research evidence excerpt

Japan Retail Sector: US and Iran announced ceasefire agreement

Global Research

15 June 2026ab

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EquitiesJapan Retail Sector

US and Iran announce ceasefire agreement Japan

Retail

Takahiro Kazahaya

Summary Analyst

According to news reports, President Trump on 14 June (US time) and Pakistani Prime takahiro.kazahaya@ubs.com

Minister Sharif on 15 June (Pakistan time) announced on social media that the US and +81-3-5208 6226

Iran had agreed to end hostilities (news report). Based on various media reports, a Kazuki Oike

signing ceremony for a memorandum on ending hostilities is to take place in Associate Analyst

Switzerland on 19 June. We summarise the implications for Japan’s retail sector. kazuki.oike@ubs.com

+81-3-5208 6964

Stabilisation of crude oil prices

At this stage, many aspects of the ceasefire are unclear, including the content of the

memorandum, whether it will actually be signed and whether it can be implemented.

Even if hostilities end, restoring oil-related facilities will take time, meaning the timeline

for the stabilisation of crude oil prices remains unclear. However, we believe that if

hostilities end, this would be broadly positive for Japan’s retail sector through 1) the

fading of special demand for petroleum-related products driven by instability in the

Middle East, 2) less upward pressure on future procurement costs and electricity charges

and 3) reduced uncertainty regarding inbound tourism as a result of stabilisation in

airline fuel surcharges.

Fading of special demand for petroleum-related products

Within our coverage, we believe sales at MonotaRO (3064), Askul (2678) and Seria

(2782), among others, were temporarily boosted by special demand arising from

uncertainty surrounding the Middle East crisis. This special demand manifested as