China Oil, Gas and Chemical Sector: Weekly tracker: preferred chemical stocks on Middle East conflict de-escalation

Research evidence excerpt

China Oil, Gas and Chemical Sector: Weekly tracker: preferred chemical stocks on Middle East conflict de-escalation

Global Research

16 June 2026ab

China Oil, Gas and Chemical Sector Equities

ChinaWeekly tracker: preferred chemical stocks on

Middle East conflict de-escalation Chemicals

Amily Guo

Analyst

amily.guo@ubs.com

Refining: Brent price might average at $85/bbl in Q326 if a quick resolution +86-105-832 8845

Global crude: The US and Iran have agreed a deal that would reopen the Strait of Henri Patricot, CFA

Hormuz after the signing ceremony on Friday in Switzerland (link). Iranian officials Analyst

confirmed that an agreement has been found and that the US blockade would be lifted henri.patricot@ubs.com

immediately and completely. UBS expects that a quick resolution implies Brent at US$85/ +33-14-888 3033

bbl on average in Q326E. While the crude price may fall before the deal is signed and Cheryl Wen

there is confirmation that the supply of oil has resumed, a rebound in crude demand Analyst

should support prices. China refining: SOE refineries' average utilisation declined S1460525030002

0.6ppt WoW to 67.18% last week. Utilisation at teapot refineries declined 2.5ppt WoW cheryl.wen@ubs.com

to 48.6%. As per Kpler data, overall China crude inventories decreased 16MMbbl to +86-21-3866 8916

1,280MMbbl last week. Richard Li

Chemicals: MDI utilisation up 9ppt WoW S1460121090003

Ethylene: naphtha-based ethylene utilisation declined 2ppt WoW to 77% and was richard-ze.li@ubs.com

+86-21-3866 8802broadly flat YoY, while MTO route utilisation was flat WoW at 83%. Polyolefins: PE

utilisation declined 1ppt/2ppt WoW/YoY to 80%, while PP utilisation decreased Nayoung Kim

1ppt/14ppt WoW/YoY to 63%. PDH utilisation decreased 1ppt WoW to 63%. PVC Analyst