US Semiconductors and Semi Equipment: SemiBytes: Semicaps, Crowding, INDI

Research evidence excerpt

US Semiconductors and Semi Equipment: SemiBytes: Semicaps, Crowding, INDI

Global Research

15 June 2026ab

US Semiconductors and Semi Equipment Equities

AmericasSemiBytes: Semicaps, Crowding, INDI

Semiconductors

Timothy Arcuri

Sorting and sifting through the recent move in Semicaps Analyst

Semicaps had a very strong week last week and dominated our investor inbounds timothy.arcuri@ubs.com

following our call that WFE would reach ~$250B in C2028 with upside from there. +1-415-352 5676

Following the rally, we thought it would be useful to refresh our spread analysis among Natalia Winkler, CFA

the various stocks in our coverage. As a reminder, our work has consistently shown that Analyst

when the 3-month performance spread among KLAC/AMAT/LRCX approaches ~30%, natalia.winkler@ubs.com

it typically warrants investor attention because spreads between these stocks rarely +1-415-352 4626

persist at these levels (see Figure 1AMATvs.LRCX- Figure 4KLACvs.ASML). With this in mind, we note that since early Gianmarco Vella

May, LRCX has been a solid outperformer versus AMAT and while these are both our Associate Analyst

favorites in the sector, this near-term trading dynamic makes AMAT particularly gianmarco.vella@ubs.com

interesting at these levels as it is the least expensive among the three stocks and if WFE +1-415-352 4555

potentially approaches ~$300B in C2029, AMAT’s EPS could potentially reach $50 if it Aaryan Wadhwa

more aggressively increases pricing. We believe there is a window for this, especially as Associate Analyst

Terafab is asking (we think) for ~$5B worth of WFE to be delivered before CYE27 and we aaryan.wadhwa@ubs.com

are hearing about some customers willing to pay more to get tools sooner as backlogs +1-212-821 6481

have ballooned.