Douglas AG

Research evidence excerpt

Douglas AG

UBS, diluted) (EUR)

Potential Online share losses despite DOU taking the right steps

From To % ch Cons.

1) Market growth: National stats data for Germany points to a deterioration in Apr vs 09/26E 1.79 1.60 -10 1.49

Q2. whereas for France points to continued weakness in Apr in line with Q2. Nielsen 09/27E 1.93 1.68 -13 1.52

data points to a recovering Skincare and Haircare but deteriorating cosmetics in Apr; 2) 09/28E 1.97 1.71 -13 1.64

Online share: We use SimilarWeb data on website visits as a proxy noting its limitations

to assess incremental share of visits. While we note the likes of Notino and Flaconi have Yashraj Rajani, CFA

been outperforming Douglas in Online visits yoy development, what's noteworthy is Analyst

yashraj.rajani@ubs.com

Sephora is also outperforming DOU in Germany which is the home market calling into

+44-20-7901 5662

question DOU's strategy based on attracting customers based on exclusivity in the

assortment. The picture in France seems to be more comforting with Nocibe Sreedhar Mahamkali

outperforming, although we note Germany has 1.6x users of France with net user Analyst

sreedhar.mahamkali@ubs.com

development in both markets being negative.

+44-20-7568 8040

FY26e-FY28e adj. EBITDA -4% to -5%; DCF-derived PT -23% to €9.0 Guillaume Delmas

Analyst

As we catch up with recent reporting, we trim FY26e revenue -1% (UBSe 1.7% growth) guillaume.delmas@ubs.com

from a softer Q2 and more cautious H2. We lower FY26e adj EBITDA -4% given +44-20-7568 8568

pressures on gross margin, resulting in a 16.0% adj EBITDA margin. Our changes flow

through to FY27e/28e with adj. EBITDA -5%. We also reflect the impairments in Q2

which alongside higher net finance costs the quantum of means EPS cut is more severe

at -10%.