First Read CTP NV: Expert call on CEE logistics - Takeaways

Research evidence excerpt

First Read CTP NV: Expert call on CEE logistics - Takeaways

me structural 12/27E 1.09 1.11

oversupply in weaker sub-markets. Developers have become more disciplined post the 12/28E 1.30 1.23

2021–23 relying on prelets. Prime rents have broadly held, with Czechia highest at €7.5/

Charles Boissier, CFAsqm/month (from c.€9.0/sqm/month 2-3 years ago) and a wider €5–6 range elsewhere,

Analyst

but effective rents are under pressure given increased incentives, reinforcing two-tier

charles.boissier@ubs.com

pricing favouring best-in-class assets. Czech is the most supply-constrained market, +44-20-7568 4415

being dominated by fewer players while Poland had traditionally lower barriers to new

Zachary Gaugesupply, yet good sites are largely gone, planning process is slower and specifically in

Warsaw it is "very difficult to get planning now".

zachary.gauge@ubs.com

+44-20-7901 5534

Transaction market increasingly anchored by domestic and regional investors

Nadir Rahman

Investment markets are recovering from cyclical lows but remain below peak volumes. Analyst

Capital is increasingly selective, favouring scale, income security and core locations nadir.rahman@ubs.com

(notably Poland and Prague), while smaller markets face liquidity constraints. Domestic +44-20-7567 1750

and regional investors are now anchoring activity, reducing reliance on international

capital but also limiting depth. CEE logistics continues to offer a yield premium versus

Western Europe (c.6.1% vs sub-5% core EU markets), albeit offset by perceived country

and liquidity risk. The spread has narrowed in more mature markets (Poland, Czechia),

hence the potential for further yield convergence may be limited and selective.

Valuation: trades at a 26% discount to NAV.