Coal: China thermal & met-coal: Why are prices lifting?

Research evidence excerpt

Coal: China thermal & met-coal: Why are prices lifting?

seaborne cargoes (15-30 days for Australia). Exports from Mongolia are now

constrained by logistical bottlenecks, with the three current land ports operating at

capacity and there are currently no plans to build a fourth port. Seaborne markets

(mostly Russia and Australia) so far only show a muted response to domestic tightening;

Russian met-coal is naturally limited (as it is used for blending) while Australian coal

imports could lift over the next few weeks as the import parity price is now slightly (see

Figure 11) below the domestic met-coal price (which has lifted materially from

~RMB1500/t in Mar to ~RMB2000/t currently). However, traders have been holding

back as domestic supply is expected to recover post-accident and steel mills are also

holding back as profitability is now depressed and demand seasonally is weakening

which limits their ability to pass on higher costs.

Thermal coal: Energy security remains priority, supply policy-protected

China is prioritising thermal coal supply over the peak summer demand period to ensure

energy security; disruption from the accident has been limited and thermal coal

producers (eg in Shaanxi) have been told to maximise production over the summer while

maintaining safety protocols. Domestic thermal coal prices have firmed from ~RMB740/t

in Mar-26 to ~RMB850/t in Jun-26 supported by seasonal restocking and concerns over

Indonesian supply and extreme weather (El Niño). We expect prices to remain elevated

over the summer with profitability of power producers limiting upside and slow after the

winter restock (albeit this to some extent depends level of exports from Indonesia). The

broader market dynamics for thermal coal in China remain balanced: port inventories