Kohl‘s Corp: UBS Evidence Lab inside: Off-Price Competition Intensifies Structural Weakness; Sell

Research evidence excerpt

Kohl‘s Corp: UBS Evidence Lab inside: Off-Price Competition Intensifies Structural Weakness; Sell

Powered by Lab Global15 JuneResearch2026ab Evidence UBS YES

Kohl's Corp Equities

AmericasUBS Evidence Lab inside: Off-Price Competition

Intensifies Structural Weakness; Sell Retailers, Apparel

12-month rating Sell *

12m price target US$9.00Our $9 Price Target is 50% below the current stock price:

We believe the market is underestimating the impact of ongoing share loss to alternative

retail channels—particularly Off-Price. We expect consensus EPS estimates to trend Price (12 Jun 2026) US$18.06

lower over the next twelve months, as weak sales and fixed-cost deleverage weigh on RIC: KSS.N BBG: KSS US

profitability. In our view, these dynamics are likely to keep investor sentiment muted and

drive the stock toward our $9 Price Target. We currently model a modest 2.2% five-year Trading data and key metrics

EPS CAGR (FY25–FY30E). UBS Evidence Lab's 9th annual US Off-Price and Department 52-wk range US$24.71-8.10

Store Retailers Consumer Survey reinforces our conviction in this view. Here are 3 key Market cap. US$2.02b

survey insights: Shares o/s 112m (COM)

Free float 99%

Structural Share Loss Despite Improving Macro Backdrop: Kohl’s is failing to

Avg. daily volume ('000) 1,280

convert improving consumer fundamentals into demand, with NTM purchase

Avg. daily value (m) US$17.7

intentions still negative at -11% vs. +14% for the survey average, a 25-point gap

that signals ongoing share loss rather than cyclical weakness (Figure 2). This Common s/h equity (01/27E) US$4.14b

disconnect is particularly notable given 46% of customers plan to increase apparel P/BV (01/27E) 0.5x

spend vs. 17% decrease (net +29%), implying incremental wallet is consistently Net debt to EBITDA (01/27E) 2.4x