Sandoz AG: Long-term attractions constrained by near-term valuation

Research evidence excerpt

Sandoz AG: Long-term attractions constrained by near-term valuation

al generics due to lower commoditisation. At

present Sandoz markets 13 biosimilars and has a pipeline of 32 additional assets focused

mainly on oncology and immunology. The company reiterated its firm view that there is

a very large opportunity for market expansion from 2029 as a wave of blockbuster

branded biologics lose patent protection including Keytruda, Ocrevus and Dupixent.

Ahead of this, it believes the reduced regulatory requirements (reducing phase III trial

requirements) and its significant investment in internalising manufacturing(new facilities

in Slovenia) should give it a great chance at remaining the leader during this market

expansion.

GLP-1 Strategy and Near-Term Growth Confidence

The company is taking a cautious “test-and-learn” approach to the GLP-1 opportunity,

using the initial opening markets such as Canada and Brazil to better understand how

the market will play out commercially US and European expansion in the early 2030s.

Rather than developing in-house semaglutide products, Sandoz plans to commercialise

third-party assets while monitoring market dynamics around pricing, supply, and

originator strategies. Management expressed confidence in its supply partners and

noted that GLP-1s could contribute meaningful growth before the larger biosimilars

patent expiry cycle begins post-2029. Combined with the long ramp profiles of recently

launched biosimilars, management indicated that they see no concerns around a

growth gap in 2027–28.

Margin Expansion Driven by Biosimilars and Operational Leverage

Sandoz reiterated its target of achieving a 24–26% core EBITDA margin by 2028,

compared with 21.7% last year, and expects continued annual improvement. Although