European Equity Strategy: Simply Europe: Insufficiently exciting

Research evidence excerpt

European Equity Strategy: Simply Europe: Insufficiently exciting

Global Research

15 June 2026ab

European Equity Strategy Equity Strategy

Europe including UKSimply Europe: Insufficiently exciting

Gerry Fowler

Strategist

Key takeaways gerry.fowler@ubs.com

+44-20-7567 5490

Crisis over? - The MOU that should re-open the Strait of Hormuz has propelled the

Stoxx 600 above our 2026 target of 630. Cyclicals are recovering and this month Sutanya Chedda

Strategist we lift luxury back to neutral as downgrades have become increasingly 'one-offs'

sutanya.chedda@ubs.com

like weak M.E. demand. That said, energy costs are expected to stay elevated for +44-20-7567 8155

over a year and we know from the 2022 shock, consumer confidence can be very

slow to recover. So we adjust our views only slightly and continue to favour AI

capex themes, inflation beneficiaries (energy, materials) and late-cycle defensives

(utilities, telecoms, pharma).

The EU continues to stagnate – The macro picture continues to drift toward an

inflationary slowdown, with leading indicators rolling over and economic surprises

turning negative. GDP growth expectations for 2026-27 are below 2025 levels,

while inflation pressures are re-emerging. There is little new to shift our core

stance: Europe is entering a more challenging phase where beta is less reliable and

selectivity becomes increasingly important.

Earnings remain the key catalyst, but risks are building – European equity

performance continues to be driven by earnings revisions in a market heavily

influenced by short-term positioning. While consensus EPS growth remains

elevated, this is increasingly concentrated in financials and energy. Our REVS and

machine-learning signals highlight that downside risks to earnings are building