CAGR Guide Outlines Post-PAA Expectations... But More Details Still To Come

Research evidence excerpt

CAGR Guide Outlines Post-PAA Expectations... But More Details Still To Come

AGR of 8-9%, based mostly on

balance sheet capacity supporting more capex. While the new guidance implies less FCF in '26/'27, Exhibit 1 - Unpacking KEY's New CAGR

we still see YE27 leverage at 2.7x (vs 2.6x previously). KEY also reiterated on today's call that Guidance... Lower Implied '27 EBITDA, but

Marketing guidance assumptions are conservative, so deleveraging could come more quickly than Higher Baseline Growth

Fee-based EBITDA per share CAGR 2025A 2027E 2029E

the late-'27 base case. Faster deleveraging increases the odds of more growth capex earlier in '27. Implied fee-based EBITDA 860 1,426 1,648

Shares outstanding 229 282 282

Implied fee-based EBITDA per share $3.75 $5.06 $5.84

PAA Synergies: KEY raised PAA synergy guidance to C$120-140mn from C$100mn. Mgmt called KEY fee-based EBITDA per share CAGR guidance 16.1% 7.5%

out further upside too, some of which requiring capex (though likely high return). Synergies beyond Prior JEFe fee-based EBITDA (sanctioned baseline) 1,476 1,648

C$140mn are not baked into CAGR guidance, implying some upside to the 2027-29 CAGR. Just C Variance vs new CAGR guidance (3.4%) (0.0%)

$30mn of incremental synergies adds a percentage point to the CAGR. PriorPrior JEFeJEFe CAGRCAGR estimateestimate (w/(sanctionedincrementalbaseline)FIDs) 8.5%5.7%

. KEY new CAGR guidance (sanctioned baseline) 7.5%

Source: Jefferies, Company filings

Marketing: KEY guided 2026 Marketing margin to C$360-390mn (vs JEFe C$413mn). The lower

Marketing guide is partially a function of a turnaround at the Empress straddle (legacy PAA) though

mgmt reiterated its conservatism around iso-octane premia. Marketing should have upside in '27