China Healthcare 2026 outlook: From business development deals to global delivery, soft recovery in domestic market

Research evidence excerpt

6 January 2026

Equity Research Report

China Healthcare

Equities

Health Care

2026 outlook: From business development deals to

global delivery, soft recovery in domestic market

China

◆ Balancing domestic headwinds with global ambition – the

internationalisation story continues to be the key in 2026

◆ Medical insurance cost containment to continue, but clinical

value and innovation to be highly rewarded

◆ We like innovative pharma companies with global pipelines and

clear data catalysts, and CXO companies that benefit from a

structural recovery

From BD to global delivery: the internationalisation leap is accelerating. The

“go-global” trend is evolving from licensing deals (business development, or BD) to

full-scale global clinical development and commercialisation, which we believe is a

core valuation driver. We are positive on pharma/biotech companies with robust

pipelines designed for global markets (BIC/FIC potential), as exemplified by

companies such as Kelun Biotech, Akeso, and Hansoh. Success hinges on delivering

positive pivotal data readouts and executing global trials. As the “go-global” trend

normalises, we expect to see more products in I/O bispecifics and antibody-drug

conjugates (ADCs) for BD, with the aim of global premium pricing, reducing singular

dependence on the China National Reimbursement Drug List (NRDL), and unlocking

better margins and sustainable growth.

Linda Shu*, PhD (Reg. No. S1700522120001)

Head of China Healthcare Research

HSBC Qianhai Securities Limited

Cindy Chai* (Reg. No. S1700523040001)

Analyst, China Healthcare Research

HSBC Qianhai Securities Limited

Oliver Wang* (Reg. No. S1700523100003)

Analyst, China Healthcare Research

HSBC Qianhai Securities Limited

Evie Liu* (Reg. No. S1700119110001)

Associate

Shenzhen

* Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is

not registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations

We expect the 2026 healthcare policy to balance cost containment and

innovation support. While national insurance (NRDL) will continue to be supportive

on cost controls with value-based procurement for volume-driven products, we

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