Thailand Power

Research evidence excerpt

Flashnote

08 September 2026

Thailand Power

Utilities

ASEAN

PDP2026: More than an electricity plan

Kaushal

Ladha, CFA

What's new

• EPPO released draft PDP26 (2026–50) for public consultation. It redesigns

Thailand’s electricity system for rising AI and data-centre demand, EV

adoption, industrial green-power demand, and distributed generation.

• Timing: The hearing runs through 15 September. After revisions and input

from EGAT, the ERC, and other power authorities, the plan will go to the

National Energy Policy Council by year-end 2026 and to the Cabinet for

early 2027 approval.

Why it matters

• PDP26 vs. PDP24. Total capacity at the 2037 comparison point is broadly

flat at 115GW. However, the mix and system architecture shift, requiring

more BESS and gas capacity for flexibility as the model moves toward

decentralisation, including direct PPAs, prosumers, and DER. PDP26 extends

to 2050 and must cover the second half of the transition.

• PDP26 is effectively an industrial-competitiveness plan, not just an

electricity plan. Carbon requirements, including CBAM, NDC 3.0, carbon

tax, and DC demand, sit alongside traditional power-system considerations.

An inadequate transition could raise costs and weaken FDI attraction.

• Electricity demand decouples from GDP. The assumptions embed lower

Figure 1 - Stocks in report

Ticker

GULF

AMATA

WHA

PTT

Mkt cap.

(US$m)

28,343

1,157

2,205

35,823

3m ADTV

(US$m)

Price

(Bt)

Rec

TP

(Bt)

TSR (%)

130.60

10.20

18.80

35.80

8-Sep

62.50

32.50

4.82

42.25

OP

N

OP

74.00

38.00

4.70

37.00

18%

17%

-2%

-12%

Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, September

2026

Prices as of 8-Sep-2026 close.

Figure 2 - PDP: Four scenarios

Base

Strategy

New capacity - 2050

Clean power share

Solar + wind

Gas addition

CCS requirement

Balanced

127 GW

65%

39 GW

24.5 GW

Net 0 via Net Zero via

CCS

RE

Preserve

fossil fuel,

Maximise RE

offset with

CCS

127 GW

195 GW

65%

89%

39 GW

114 GW

24.5 GW

16.8 GW

32 MtCO2

RE + CCS

Hybrid

pathway

147 GW

73%

64 GW

18.9 GW

21 MtCO2

Source: EPPO, September 2026

Asean Power - Macquarie Asean Conference 2026

population and GDP growth, offset by higher electricity intensity. EVs and

data centres drive the largest demand gains.…