Eli Lilly & Company Another Strong Quarter, Continue to See Upside from Here

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

North America Equity Research

05 August 2026

Eli Lilly & Company

Another Strong Quarter, Continue to See Upside from

Here

Exiting LLY’s 2Q results and our catch-up with the company, we continue to see

further upside to Street estimates driven by the continued outperformance of

Mounjaro internationally (+$600mm vs cons on 2Q) as well as a strong initial ramp

for the US Medicare obesity program. Further, with encouraging early uptake of

Foundayo in the UAE (and global rollout in 40+ OUS markets in 2027), we view

the full launch of Foundayo internationally as another upside driver to estimates.

More broadly on the story, LLY remains our top pick with further upside to Street

numbers over the next several years (especially ex-US) as well as a series of

upcoming catalysts that we expect will extend LLY’s leadership position in the

$200bn+ incretin market. On clinical catalysts, we see data from the elora +

tirzepatide as most impactful (EASD in late Sept). And recent retatrutide phase 3

results, as well as strong monotherapy eloralintide data, sets up LLY with a range

of next-generation programs to improve upon Zepbound’s current best-in-class

profile. Reiterate OW.

International Mounjaro continues to exceed expectations, and we see

significant room for growth from here. On the quarter, Mounjaro generated

$5.2bn in OUS sales (now annualizing at ~$21bn) which came in ~$600mm

ahead of the Street. This is up over $700mm sequentially with the broader

market up 74% YoY and LLY continuing to gain share (+~200bps

sequentially). Further, despite the launch of generic semaglutide, LLY

continues to see healthy TRx growth in India / Brazil / Canada (in the latter,

Mounjaro TRx growth in line with market). And overall, we continue to see

significant room for further market expansion given the still early stage of

launch.

We think this reads through positively on the ramp of Foundayo as well (which

is now approved in UAE, Mexico, and Saudi Arabia). And here, LLY noted that

early uptake in UAE has been encouraging and demonstrated pent-up demand

that we believe could be replicated in other markets as well (particularly in

…